The general election in November for the House seat in Alaska, a conservative-leaning state with a strong libertarian and independent streak, is considered a tossup, in part because of the uncertainties of the ranked-choice system. Candidates still have a chance to revise their strategies, and the ballot will include a fourth top candidate to rank, the largely unknown Christopher Bye, a combat veteran who is running as a libertarian. (In the special election, the fourth candidate, an independent named Al Gross, dropped out and expressed support for Ms. Peltola.)
“Sarah Palin still has a path forward because it was still quite close,” a Republican pollster, Matt Larkin, said. “It will come down to how she and the other candidates adapt.”
In the special election, roughly 60 percent of Alaskans listed a Republican as their first choice on the ballot. Ms. Peltola and Ms. Palin earned the top two spots, but neither had 50 percent of the vote. So votes from the ballots that had ranked Nick Begich III, also a Republican, as first choice were then allocated between Ms. Palin and Ms. Peltola based on whether either woman had been listed second.
That tally showed that Ms. Palin had not united Republican voters behind her: Of the ballots that ranked Mr. Begich first, only about half listed her as a second choice. Roughly 30 percent ranked Ms. Peltola second, and a further 21 percent were considered “exhausted,” or inactive — meaning they had no second choice or they listed a candidate who had already been eliminated.
[...]
In an interview Thursday, Mr. Begich said he had told his supporters to rank Ms. Palin second but that she did not reciprocate the call.